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Return to Mean Timer

Measure how far current results have stretched from typical hit rates so you can judge reversion risk.

Category: Statistics

Keywords: return to mean, reversion, tension

Overview

Return to Mean compares the present streak to historical averages and expresses how much tension is in the system. Elevated tension hints that the winning pattern is likely to cool off, while relaxed tension means the theme can keep running.

Glance at the gauge before you double down on a streak. It helps you decide whether to play conservatively or press the momentum for one more draw.

Usage tips

  • When tension spikes, rebalance toward neutral combos or hedge with contrarian plays.
  • Pair the card with Frequency Analysis to see which combos are responsible for the stretch.
  • Revisit after each drawing; sharp drops often precede a reshuffle in other statistics.

Frequently asked

What qualifies as high tension?
Anything in the red zone signals the current run is well above trend. Treat it as a warning to scale risk.
Does low tension mean momentum is gone?
Low readings simply indicate alignment with historical averages. Momentum may continue but carries less pressure.

Glossary checkpoints

Mean reversion, Window